There are several different techniques that bettors will use to try and decide where to place their money. Some will say that momentum and recent success are enough. Others like to get into the numbers and look at the NFL stats to make their selections. Let’s look at how NFL stats will help us win bets.
Wins and Losses
Of course, wins and losses are important when it comes to betting on a team. No one is going to put a large sum of money on a team that struggles to win. However, when we look at what makes teams successful and what they are doing to win, using stats can change an opinion.
Let’s look at the Indianapolis Colts. Overall, the Colts are 9-6 and 10-5 against the spread. If a bettor looks up stats on the Indianapolis Colts, they would know that they are run-heavy and depend on Jonathan Taylor to score. If a bettor would have looked up how any team was against the run, it would have been an easy way to see how the game, at least offensively, was going to go for the Colts.
The Colts are on a three-game winning streak currently. If we break down the defenses of all three of those teams, they are in either 15th or worse for rushing yards allowed this season. This can be found by simply looking up the rankings for defenses and churning your criteria to meet the needed information. For this example, look up the team’s defensive stats against the rush.
Another stat that could be beneficial, that most do not think about, is the defensive sack. Team’s that create a lot of pressure on the quarterback, make it tough for offensives to take deep threats, as the play does not have the necessary time to develop.
With a simple search of defenses with the most sacks, one of the top five teams is the Tennessee Titans. Before Week 8, the Titans were led by the running of Derrick Henry. Unfortunately, his knee injury has caused him to miss the rest of the season so far. Since Week 8, the Titans have managed to go 4-3 and keep themselves atop the AFC South.
A lot of the success of the Titans can be given to the stout defense. In games where the Titans are going up against less than mobile quarterbacks, the Titans have a strong chance to be effective defensively, and we know this based on the stats.
Prop Bets
Another way stats can be extremely beneficial is in the realm of prop bets. There are several different bets that a bettor can make for any NFL game being played. Things like yards receiving, yards rushing, or combined yards are all things that a bettor can pick the over/under on. Another bet that seems to be a favorite amongst bettors is the anytime touchdown scorer.
The theory when betting a touchdown scorer is relatively identical to that of when a bettor is picking a team to win the game. Bettors should want to know how the team is against the pass or the rush as well as their goal line efficiency and who catches the most touchdowns on the goal line.
Also, looking at stats relative to how the player has been being used, such as targets. In almost any stat sheet, there is going to be something that discusses the number of targets that a player receives. If one specific player is consistently getting more targets than all of the others then he would be someone to consider for an anytime touchdown scorer.
A great example of this would be Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams. In nine of the 15 games the Rams have played, Kupp has found his way into the endzone. Another stat that would say Kupp is a great choice for touchdown scorer, no matter who the Rams are playing, is that only once this season has Kupp received less than double-digit starts.
Overview
It is easy to look at betting stats, as far as against the spread, and make an assumption immediately. But bettors who do their research and make sure they have checked over all of the stats can make a much more sound choice. Hopefully, this helps to understand the importance of using stats in betting.
